| A Hare And Tortoise Game Authored by Christopher Reina - May 20, 2009 - 3:56 pm
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Denver raced out to an early 27-14 lead with a 10-2 run and a 7-2 run, both with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol on the floor. Bryant went to the bench near the end of the first with a -10 and Gasol sat with a -8 at the end of the first.
The bench of Lamar Odom, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic began to eat into that lead by shaving seven points away until Bryant and Gasol reentered in the middle of the second. The Lakers closed out the half with a Derek Fisher three-pointer, which was setup after the Nuggets scored with too much time remaining.
The Lakers lack of depth has been a not so well-guarded secret for the entire season and it was especially troublesome during the Houston series. But it is what locked the Lakers in during the first half.
Luke Walton was +9 and Jordan Farmar was +5, while Derek Fisher was the only starter on the positive side for the Lakers. Denver's starters were on the positive side, except for Carmelo '39 points on 14-20' Anthony and Nene. It was J.R. Smith's -8, Anthony Carter's -7 and Chris Andersen's -3 that allowed the Lakers back in; Smith was on the floor for two separate five point swings in the second and then the final run in the fourth.
The value of offensive rating/defensive rating differential for the Lakers at this point in the playoffs is dubious because of the frequency of one-sided games this season and the six-game beat down by the Celtics last year, but it is interesting to compare to from last year's run.
Player: 08-09/07-08
Kobe Bryant: +13/+5
Pau Gasol: +17/+8
Lamar Odom: +16/+2
Andrew Bynum: +5/NA
Derek Fisher: -4/+13
Trevor Ariza: +9/+16
Jordan Farmar: +4/-15
Luke Walton: -5/0
Sasha Vujacic: -21/-5
Shannon Brown: +16/NA
This seems to be an instance where the stats are lying through the one-sided games.
Kobe's eFG% in last season's playoffs was 57.7% and it has dropped to 49.1%. He is working as hard for his shots in these early rounds as he had to when he finally faced Boston's defense. His 40 points on Tuesday came on a modest 13-28 shooting and he way buoyed by the 12-13 from the line.
While point guard and the bench will continue to be problem areas, the middle four of Gasol, Odom, Bynum and Ariza will be the difference makers to defeat Denver and also why Cleveland is a better match-up for how the Lakers are constructed than the 08 Celtics were.
Gasol has been clearly much better on the glass and scoring more efficiently, with better toughness overall.
The Denver and Cleveland match-ups are favorable for Odom's game and his 15.5 FIC40 in Game 1 should be relatively standard from here on out and could increase since he wasn't a huge factor offensively. Neither of those teams have a player that can marginalize him the way Boston did.
Bynum wasn't healthy last season, so that's an obvious starting point, but his sheer presence on the floor is a game-changer even when it is limited due to fouls or simply erratic.
Ariza only played 45 playoff minutes last season, so he was a definite non-factor. He's scoring with great efficiency (63.3% eFG%) and though Odom deserves credit for the steal on the Carter in-bounds pass, the Lakers aren't athletic enough last season to make that play at the end of the game.
The inconsistency isn't likely to end because the Lakers don't have enough pure firepower to roll over teams the way the Cavaliers did, though they are also clearly facing superior teams than the Pistons and Hawks.
Even still, I don't think Kobe's legs will allow it, but that's something Boston overcame last season with the legs of KG, Pierce and Allen. Kobe is shooting 50% from the floor during their nine wins and just 37% during their four losses.
9-4 is a number combination to remember, because that's a .692 winning percentage, which is not too far away from the .793 during their regular season in which they played the Warriors, Clippers and Kings four times each.
The Celtics were 7-6 at this point in the playoffs last year, while the Lakers were cruising to a 10-3 record over their first 13.
Maybe the game the Lakers are playing isn't unpredictable inconsistency, but hare and tortoise. |
