| Keep It Together in LA Authored by Matthew Gordon - June 23, 2008 - 2:03 pm
After the Lakers lost 4-2 to the Celtics in the Finals, and especially thanks to Game 6’s historic 39-point shellacking, pretty much everyone is wondering what kind of changes the Lakers need to win a championship. Garnett was a force against them in the final round, capping his efforts with 26 points and 14 rebounds to shut the door; down the line, teams like the Hornets and Blazers could potentially eclipse the Lakers. Did the Lakers miss a window, or did the Celtics ensure that there was never a window at all?
The answer to both is a resounding no. The Lakers did exhibit certain weaknesses throughout the playoffs, like having to start Vladimir Radmanovic against Paul Pierce, which can be cited as one of the reasons for Pierce’s Finals MVP. That same small forward position, ironically, is also one at which the Lakers have a glut, with Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza coming off the bench. Even so, the Lakers still did come out of the brutal Western Conference with a sparkling 12-3 record – for the sake of explaining just how difficult the Lakers had it in the Finals, they lost more games to the Celtics than to all other opponents combined.
More interesting, and more relevant to the coming years, are the Lakers’ vast array of strengths. The Kobe-Pau connection has been extremely effective, with the two looking like they became teammates four years ago instead of four months ago. Having an elite passer in the backcourt with legit 6’6” (at least) height lobbing balls to a seven-footer with arms that extend well above the rim before he even bothers to jump is an effective way to run an offense. Lamar Odom’s play has been inspired as of late, as he’s posted career-high marks of 2.6ORPG and .525FG% during the season, and he delivered a great 8-for-10, 20-point, 11-rebound, 4-block performance in the Lakers’ Game 5 victory over the Celtics.
Overall, especially when considering key injuries to Trevor Ariza (who would’ve been guarding Pierce) and Andrew Bynum (who weighs more than any Celtic, and that’s just the beginning), the Lakers are looking very well-poised for the future. Derek Fisher, who’s presumably still the starter at point guard, has a wealth of playoff experience (ten season, all with the Lakers, out of his twelve years in the league) but sure isn’t slowing down; in 21 games these playoffs, he shot .452 from the field to go with a blistering .440 from three, and averaged two steals per game to under a turnover. At shooting guard, Bryant doesn’t even need justification – let his MVP do the talking. Odom’s pegged to be making the switch to small forward, where he played much of his earlier career, and can use his size more effectively in the post while risking getting beaten off the bounce by Pierce-types. Gasol at power forward is a fine proposition, as his passing and ball-handling skills are great for his size, with his two assists per turnover looking nicer than the ratios of some shooting guards. Bynum at center is a double-double threat every night (he averaged 13.1PPG and 10.2RPG before his season-ending injury), who’s also the team’s best shot-blocker at 2.1 per game and is a very high-percentage shooter. Off the bench, the team has youngsters like Jordan Farmar, who can keep up with speedy point guards, and Ronny Turiaf, who’s gone from energy guy to shot-blocker (1.4BPG in 18.7MPG this season, with similar numbers in reduced minutes during the playoffs).
If the team stays put this offseason, the rotation can look like this in the fall…
C: Andrew Bynum / Chris Mihm
PF: Pau Gasol / Ronny Turiaf
SF: Lamar Odom / Trevor Ariza
SG: Kobe Bryant / Sasha Vujacic
PG: Derek Fisher / Jordan Farmar
Mihm isn’t the player he once was, and Vujacic and Turiaf will both have to be re-signed for money that might vault the Lakers into luxury tax territory. That said, relinquishing the latter two for financial purposes isn’t anyone’s idea of bringing a championship to LA. The other obvious thing about that rotation is just how massive it is – 6’10” Odom at small forward with two seven-footers in the paint is about as big as the NBA has to offer. The team fared fine in the playoffs with Radmanovic (also 6’10”), Odom and Gasol – and Gasol, who would be supplanting Radmanovic at forward, isn’t slow enough to make big-ball prohibitive.
Aside from cutting out bad contracts, which will be addressed later, there’s the popular idea of upgrading the starting lineup somewhere. It isn’t physically possible to upgrade over Bryant at his position, Gasol has fit in too well, and Bynum is only twenty while showing all the signs of a star in the making. Suffice to say, none of those three will be wearing a non-Lakers uniform next season.
The remaining two spots are occupied by Fisher and Odom. The logical place I’d look to upgrade is at point guard, with Fisher having shown in 2004 that he’s willing to take a role as the team’s third guard. He’s also the team’s oldest starter by four years, so he’ll likely be the first to be replaced anyway. Strangely, though, it isn’t point guard that’s getting attention – it’s small forward.
Odom’s name has been bandied about in trade rumors more or less since he came into the league; according to the sources that claimed he was almost shipped to the Heat for P.J. Brown in 1999, this goes back to even before he came into the league. Since then, Odom’s signed as a free agent once and been traded once, not exactly the kind of journeyman record one would expect for a player who can’t seem to stay out of the rumor mills. The criticisms of Odom are patchwork, yet for his detractors, form an organized whole. He’s apparently stuck between the small forward and power forward positions, too clunky for the former and too weak for the latter. He’s also apparently making too much money ($14.1 million next season, after which he will allegedly want an extension). The two problems arising from moving Odom is what he can net in a trade and whether the Lakers would really be saving that much money at all.
Dave D’Alessandro of the Newark-based Star-Ledger wrote a capable and interesting column yesterday that contemplated a Richard Jefferson for Lamar Odom swap. Backing the proposition that was allegedly made by Nets management, D’Alessandro claims that
“Though we never saw that frontcourt [of Odom, Gasol and Bynum], it's pretty clear where the Lakers are heading. Odom took the biggest hit in the aftermath of Game 6. If L.A. moves anybody, it shall be him, because Pau Gasol is best suited for the four-spot anyway.
But is RJ the right replacement at the 3? If the Lakers figure to meet up with Paul Pierce again next June, there's no one better. Nets fans know that better than anyone.”
I don’t think Jefferson is the right fit for the Lakers at all, or that Odom necessarily has to go. Gasol’s ability to play power forward, short of pushing Odom out of the rotation, merely means that Odom can be an above-elite rebounder at small forward. Gasol’s rebounding weakness (he’s never averaged a double-double, even for a short stretch) and the Lakers’ relative lack of rebounding options at other positions not manned by Bynum, necessitates a strength somewhere else. The Lakers need to be competitive on the glass against teams like the Hornets, who sport an all-around power player in David West and the freakishly long Tyson Chandler. The Blazers, who will have the inactive yet still heralded Greg Oden to go along with LaMarcus Aldridge (2.9ORPG this past season), are another Western team that will look to own the backboards. This is all without even getting started on wide bodies like Carlos Boozer, Chris Kaman and Elton Brand, all of whom will need to be checked.
An Odom for Jefferson trade, even aside from the additional $28 million in salary assumed by the Lakers that D’Alessandro mentions aptly, means trading a ten-rebound player (Odom) for a player who hasn’t averaged over five rebounds in two years (Jefferson). Putting Jefferson and Gasol together at the forward spots, while dazzling on the offensive end and more than capable on defense, presents a rebounding issue that the league’s top forwards will exploit with impunity.
As for the matchup with Pierce, the Lakers already have someone well-suited for that job. Having a healthy Trevor Ariza as sixth man will be indispensable if the Lakers encounter the Celtics again, as Ariza is a rangy 6’8” player who will dedicated himself to pestering Pierce. Ariza is at least as good a defender as Jefferson, and although he’s not as good a scorer, wing scoring isn’t a pressing need for any team with Bryant. The only way for the Lakers to upgrade defensively over the likes of Ariza and Odom would be to make a move on a player like Sacramento’s Ron Artest, a former Defensive Player of the Year, but acquiring him could disrupt the Lakers’ seemingly good team chemistry and definitely good offence.
California columnist Broderick Turner’s article in the Press-Enterprise brings up the idea of the Lakers dealing Odom, but not for long. Lakers general manger Mitch Kupchak’s emphatic rebuking of trade rumors involving Odom, while expected, surely isn’t a bad sign. Turner’s statement that “They believe [Bynum] can defend the paint and intimidate when he's not blocking shots, be a force down low on offense and the physical presence they lacked when they lost to the Celtics in the Finals” is not only indicative of how much Bynum’s return will transform the team, but also that the missing ingredient for a championship doesn’t need to come at Odom’s expense. Bynum’s presence down low should open up Odom for doing what he does best – opening up opportunities for his teammates while also dominating the boards.
In the rotation I posted above, two current Lakers are conspicuously missing. Radmanovic and Luke Walton, a pair of forwards who saw significant time this past season, are the ones who will be pushed out of the rotation when Odom converts back to small forward and Ariza returns. Radmanovic is on a mid-level contract (upwards of $5 million per year) and Walton is in the midst of a similar yet slightly smaller contract. Dealing Odom might not save much – he is an expiring contract, after all, so the Lakers can let him walk if they get that desperate – but unloading these two might be exactly what the team needs to do. Demand will likely not be high, but if the Gasol trade is any indication, Kupchak isn’t the worst at working a deal.
The Lakers’ big issues next season will be re-integrating Bynum and Ariza, and shifting Odom to small forward. The team’s frontcourt could be the best in the league, with any combination of Odom, Gasol, Bynum, Ariza and Turiaf (assuming he’s re-signed) seeing the court at any given time. The point guard position could be upgraded, and the monetary gristle could be removed, but neither should be done at the expense of a long, athletic group of players who will give Mr. MVP backing in the paint when he needs it most. A six-game defeat to one of the best teams of this decade isn’t reason enough to panic. Total obliteration of the three preceding opponents, though, is enough to maintain a core and be very excited for the years ahead. |
