| What Does Kobe’s 81 Points Mean For Basketball? Authored by Walter A. Nesbeth III - January 31, 2006 - 1:47 pm
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For some reason, I couldn’t stop there. When you consider the much publicized feud between Kobe and Shaq, and the prevailing thought that many NBA players (see the separation of Stephon Marbury and Kevin Garnett) would prefer to be the singular star on a losing team rather than share the limelight and potentially win a championship, you have a story behind the numbers.
Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 points scored on March 2, 1962 against the New York Knicks, was not only almost two score and 4 years ago, it was done in another era. That was an era where Chamberlain and Russell were the preeminent “Big Men” in a game that had none who were their equal. While the output was gaudy, it was more a staple of just how much greater Chamberlain was than his competition. A giant among his peers, Chamberlain would 5 years later lead the league in assists just to prove that he could do it. Ironically, the Sixers team that Chamberlain played for that year lost to the Celtics that year in the Eastern Finals.
Back to Kobe; through his first 41 games this season, Kobe has averaged 35.9 points per game. Within that per game average, I was interested to see just what the Won/Lost record was in those games at different levels of output.
Given the dichotomy that seems to exist in today’s NBA; less individual promotion (see the Dress Code and other such rules) and more emphasis on the team, I wanted to see how Kobe’s accomplishment fit in. I broke down Kobe’s games into Percentage of Team’s Points vs. Wins/Losses. Here is what I found:
% of Team's Points W – L Win %
Less than 25% of Points 2 - 2 0.500
25% to 30% of Points 7 - 2 0.778
31% to 39% of Points 7 - 4 0.636
Greater than 40% of Points 7 - 10 0.412
If we throw out the possibility that Kobe will score 50+ points per game for the remainder of the season, we see an interesting trend. Despite having a 3 – 1 record in the games that Kobe has scored 50 or more points, there is a greater sampling of games where Kobe represented 40% or more of his team’s total output. In those games, the Lakers have a less than pedestrian record of 7 wins against 10 losses. It appears that the optimal range of points from Kobe that help the Lakers to victory fall between 21 to 39 points. In that range, the Lakers have a combined 14 – 10 record versus 9 – 8 in all of Kobe’s other games. Additionally, from a ball distribution standpoint, it appears that the Lakers are much more successful when Kobe averages from 25% to 39% (14 Wins & 6 Losses) of the Lakers total points in a game. When you consider their 98.4 points per game average, the indication is that the Lakers have an excellent chance to win when Kobe scores between 24.6 to 38.4 points in a game. Obviously, more players are involved and since the Lakers are not devoid of talent, there is a greater sense of contribution.
What does all of this number crunching mean? As far as I am concerned, it means that while it is nice to see a spectacular performance every once in a while, there is no greater influence on success than teamwork. One only has to look as far as the Detroit Pistons and the San Antonio Spurs for examples. Kobe can get his points, but his victories lie in the collective hands of his teammates. |
